Wednesday, October 28, 2009

The BASICS - WillisNYC

When I first started playing poker, everything was about the odds. I played limit ring a lot and needed to know if certain calls were justified. My first poker book listed all those "drawing"odds in a neat little chart that I copied and taped to the side of my computer monitor. It stayed there until I memorized those numbers and hard coded them into my brain. When I started playing a lot more NL ring, those numbers helped me to make good decisions quickly. Below is a copy of that chart with some explanations.

Odds w/2 cards Odds w/1 cards Examples
21 70.1% 45.7% Open end str8 flush draw with 2 overs
20 67.5% 43.5%
19 65.0% 41.3%
18 62.4% 39.1%
17 59.8% 37.0%
16 57% 34.8%
15 54.1% 32.6% Open end str8 flush draw
14 51.2% 30.4%
13 48.1% 28.3%
12 45.0% 26.1% Flush draw with one over
11 41.7% 23.9%
10 38.4% 21.7% Flopped set, missed turn, need FH
9 35.0% 19.6% Flush draw
8 31.5% 17.4% Open end Str8 draw or double gut
7 27.8% 15.2% Flopped a set, need a FH to win
6 24.1% 13.0%
5 20.4% 10.9% Have a pr, need to pr your kicker
4 16.5% 8.7% Inside (gutshot) straight draw
3 12.5% 6.5%
2 8.4% 4.3% You have pp and need a set
1 4.3% 2.2%

You also need some other numbers ‘hard-wired' about preflop odds for different types of starting hands. The odds of flopping a full house or other stronger hand are so low (.09% or less) as to be considered insignificant.

However the following stats are VERY significant.


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